I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.

My Saturday opinion on the Under won. My Basketball Best Bets have won 12 of the last 16 weeks, which is what’s really important to me, and I’m 25-18-1 on my Free Best Bets. However, it’s been a strange losing season with the opinions, which are just 65-78-5 this season.

I was 49-38-1 on my Free Best Bets and 548-487-19 on my free opinions the previous 5 seasons.

Thursday NBA
San Antonio (+5 ½) over MIAMI

In my opinion, the only reason Miami needed 7 games to beat Indiana was due to the Pacers randomly high 3 point shooting percentage of 41.4% as opposed to the 33.3% that was expected of them against the heat defense.  I don’t think there was anything wrong with Miami this week — the Pacers just shot the ball extraordinarily well.

Moving forward, I don’t believe the Heat are better than a healthy Spurs team. We cannot accurately gauge the Spurs’ future playoff performance against the Heat based on their regular season meetings because during the regular season the Spurs were plagued with injury and needed to rest their aging starters more often. San Antonio’s average game rating with Tony Parker and Tim Duncan playing is ½ a point better than Miami’s rating in games in which LeBron James played (nobody else on that team really made a difference in their performance). Miami does get a boost with LeBron James playing more minutes in the playoffs than he did in the regular season and my ratings have these teams even heading into this series based on playoff rotations of each team. Home court advantage in the playoffs is 4 ½ points and I have Miami by 4 ½ points in this game. However, using playoff games only would favor Miami by just 2 points and I get Heat by 3 points even if I exclude the Spurs’ first round series against the injury depleted Lakers (although I did adjust for that in my ratings).

The home teams in game 1 of the NBA Finals has covered 8 years in a row (14-8 ATS the last 22 years) but Miami applies to a 4-19 ATS game 1 situation that is 0-2 ATS in game 1 of the Finals. Some people are arguing that the extra time off that San Antonio has had since their last game could result in the Spurs being rusty but my database reveals no such evidence. I’ll lean with San Antonio at +5 or more and I’d consider the Spurs a Strong Opinion at +6 or more.

The total is a bit difficult to calculate for this game because the total (188 ½ points) appears to be too low, as I get 191 ½ points as my prediction, adjusted for playoff tempo. However, the first game of the finals has gone Under 8 of the last 9 games and is 15-7 under the last 22 years, so I have no opinion on the total.
The value favors San Antonio a bit in this series but Miami has been very good after a loss so I expect their level of play to rise if they find themselves down, which takes away some of the value favoring the Spurs. Thus, I have no opinion on the series.

You can check my site for free sports betting advice anytime to see when I post my stats.

Hello, Dr. Bob here for another free analysis. On occasion twice a week I’ll post my opinion of an NBA game, or NFL as a free analysis. I also post a playoff package and a best bet package which I believe have a greater chance of being accurate for optimal sports investing. I really like that a good majority favors Indiana for this game, but I feel like the numbers speak for themselves.

Indiana has covered the spread in 3 of 4 games in this series but Miami has outscored the Pacers by 8 points overall despite 24 points of negative variance. Miami hasn’t been shooting well from the 3 point arc this series. I realize that Indiana has the NBA’s best 3-point defense (allowing 33.0% to a schedule of teams that combine to average 36.1% from 3-point range on offense), but Miami’s 3-point shooting offense is actually slightly better than Indiana’s 3-point defense as the Heat have made 38.9% of their 3-point shots against teams that combine to allow 35.6% defensively. Based on those numbers Miami should be making 36.0% of their 3-points shots in this series but they’ve made only 30.9% (21 of 68). Indiana, meanwhile, has made 39.7% of their 3-point shots rather than the 33.3% that is expected based on their poor season to date offensive 3-point shooting numbers (34.2% against teams that allow 35.9%) and Miami’s good 3-point defense (34.6% allowed to teams that average 35.4%). Indiana is also making 77.0% from the line (better than their 74.8% season average) while Miami has made just 75.0% from the free throw stripe (75.5% for the season). Overall, the 3-point and free throw shooting variance in this series has been 24 points in favor of the Pacers, which makes Miami’s 8 point margin in scoring even more impressive. Without the variance the Heat would be outscoring Indiana by 8 points per game. Miami’s shooter aren’t likely to continue missing, (Ray Allen and Shane Battier, Miami’s main two 3-point shooters are a combined 11 for 46 from long range in this series) and Indiana isn’t likely to keep making 40% of their shots from beyond the arc.

My ratings favor Miami by 8 points in this game based on season data and adjusted for playoff rotations (that favors Indiana by 0.5 points more than it favors Miami) and I also get 8 points using each team’s playoff games only (adjusted for George Hill missing one game for Indiana). The line in game 1 here in Miami was also 8 points and Miami has actually played better than expected in this series if you factor out the negative variance. There are a few technical situations that go both ways, but the stronger situations favor Miami and I like that more than 60% of the public is betting Indiana. I’ll lean with Miami at -8 or less and I’d consider the Heat a Strong Opinion at -7 or less.

UNDER (185 ½) – Indiana at MIAMI
All 4 games in this series have gone over the total despite the number of possessions per game being below expectations. Game 4 was actually the slowest paced game of the series but these teams continue to be much more efficient offensively (points per possession) than expected. I still contend that the scoring efficiency of these teams in this series is not likely to continue, although using playoff games only for both teams would predict a slightly higher expected efficiency than using compensated statistics from the entire season. Using the average pace of this series with the expected scoring efficiency based on each team’s playoff games only would yield a prediction of 181.7 total points. There have been only 4 playoff series since 1992 that have had the total go over in each of the first 4 games of the series and game 5 of those series have gone under 3 out of 4 times with the one game that went over totaling just 179 points (the total was 171). I’ll lean UNDER 184 points or higher.

You can check my site for free sports betting advice anytime to see when I post my stats.

Michigan had been down for the majority of the game. With three minutes remain thunderous cheers filled the stadium. Trey Burke in the final seconds of the game sank a three point shot sending it into overtime.

    Kansas had dominated the first half scoring most of their points in the paint. Still the Wolverines held on and only trailed by 10. In a blink of an eye they were down by six. Morale soared and we watched as Michigan did what had seemed impossible.

    Mitch McGary, Michigan’s forward, scored 25 points. Burke had 23 of his point after halftime. With Kansas out, Louisville is the only number one seed left remaining. Michigan plays Syracuse next, and I can’t help but be excited. What will Michigan do next?

I’ll be posting a free analysis later today after 3 pm. Be sure to check out my Best bets as well, as I have won seven weeks in a row now.

I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.

My Thursday opinions were 1-1 with a win on Michigan State, a loss on Virginia. The UTSA at San Jose State game was cancelled. This has been a strange year for my Free Analysis, which usually wins at a profitable rate. I’m just 14-17 on my Free Best Bets and 48-64-5 on my free opinions this season.

I was 49-38-1 on my Free Best Bets and 548-487-19 on my free opinions the previous 5 seasons.

Friday Daytime Best Bet
***Indiana State (+3) over Evansville
12:35 PM Pacific – Rotation 841
Indiana State enters the MVC tournament off 7 consecutive spread losses while Evansville is riding a 4 game win streak and 5 game covering streak, including an 84-68 home win over ISU in the regular season finale on Saturday. That recent form actually points towards Indiana State, as the Sycamores qualify in a very good 131-43 ATS conference tournament situation today. My ratings only favor Evansville by 1 point with #2 scorer and top rebounder Manny Arop returning from a 2 game suspension for Indiana State. I’ll take Indiana State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +2 or more and for 2-Stars at +1 or pick.

If you are interested in any of my Best Bet packages or more Free Analysis’s come down to Dr Bobs Sports!

As most of you are well aware, I usually take the MLB season off from handicapping. This isn’t because I’m not a fan, I just typically need a break from my long hours during the Basketball and Football seasons.

The good news is that I’ve found an amazing handicapper to offer sports betting advice on my site now for every major league baseball game of the season!

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If this reason alone isn’t enough for you though, let me give you 5 more reasons why I decided to introduce baseball betting advice on my site.

1) In the words of the great Charley Sheen, we all want to be “winning”! If you ask any leading sports handicapper which game is beaten the most on a consistent basis, the answer will be MLB. I want to give all my subscribers the best shot at making the most profit all year long!

2) No covering needed! We stay strictly to betting on money lines so you don’t have to worry about factoring in the spread. When the team we bet on wins, you win! It’s as easy as that.

3) Because of dime lines, (when the difference between the favorite and the underdog on the money line is only 10 cents) the house’s edge for baseball betting is only around half of what it football and basketball- especially when the house lines stay intact longer!

4) The baseball season has over 2,400 games in it. With this many possible bets, it means it’s much easier to overcome short term variance. If you get unlucky, stick to the strategy and it will pay off in the long run.

5) Every play or event in baseball begins with a one on one battle between the guy on the mound and the guy at the plate. My advanced stats strategy takes advantage of this knowledge and lends itself to greater predictability for the outcome of the game before the first pitch is thrown.

If you’re interested in signing up for our baseball betting advice “Best Bets” package, early bird specials are available now for only $1279 for the whole season and $799 for half of the year. Visit www.drsports.com for more info!

Image source: www.mlbdailypicks.com

  I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.

  My Thursday opinion on St. Mary’s -8 won by just 7. This continues to be a strange year for my Free Analysis, which usually wins at a profitable rate. I’m 12-15 on my Free Best Bets and 36-55-4 on my free opinions this season.

I was 49-38-1 on my Free Best Bets and 548-487-19 on my free opinions the previous 5 seasons.

Boston (-2) over PHOENIX
Rotation #819 – 6:05 pm Pacific
Boston has started this road trip with consecutive losses at Denver and at the Lakers but the Celtics qualify in a very good 82-25-2 ATS road bounce-back situation tonight. Boston is also 10-5-1 ATS this season without the overrated Rajon Rondo, including 8-3 ATS since he was deemed lost for the season. My issue here is that my ratings favor Boston by just ½ a point and the line opened at -1 and has gone up. I’ll lean with the Celtics at -2 or less and I’d take Boston in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.

  I also have 2 Friday NBA Best Bets for just $15 ($20 for non-members). and there are 2 NBA Best Bets, a 3-Star total and a 2-Star total, from the NBA Guru for just $15. Click here to check out my Basketball Handicapping!

Friday College Best Bet:
Every Friday I post my a free analysis. With the foot ball season over, I’ve turned my attention to Basketball. My basketball analyses will be posted shortly before the game.

  Harvard has a tendency to play down to the level of competition they are challenged with. Which is a pattern the Crimson have time and time again established in the recent years under Tommy Amaker as coach. They have done very well when playing more challenging teams. The Crimson are just 27-49-1 ATS in Ivy League games under Amaker, including 10 straight spread losses (0-6 ATS this season). The only time Amaker’s club seems to get up for their Ivy opponents is in same season revenge games (8-6-1 ATS), but the Crimson are just 19-43 ATS in league play when they don’t have the revenge motive and their upset loss to Columbia last Saturday sets Harvard up in a negative 20- 93-2 ATS situation today. My ratings favor Harvard by 11 1/2 points, so the line is fair, and Penn has actually played at a slightly higher level without Fran Dougherty, who has missed 10 games and is now out for the season. I’ll take Penn in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 3-Stars at +12 or more.

You can read more best bets and about my packages at http://drbobsports.com

    Now that the football season is over, I will be solely focusing on Basketball! I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years. Last Wednesday my opinion had Indiana State +5 over Creighton, and I won straight up. I’m 10-13 on my Free Best Bets and 32-45-3 on my free opinions this season. I was 49-38-1 on my Free Best Bets and 548-487-19 on my free opinions the previous 5 seasons. I’m looking forward to the rest of the season, and I hope you tune in for my sports betting advice! Below are my Thursday College Opinions, which are part of my free analysis.

Thursday College Opinions

ILLINOIS (+7) over Indiana
Rotation #510 – 4 pm Pacific
Illinois started the season with 12 straight wins, including victories over Butler and Gonzaga, but the Illini are just 3-8 since then. However, Illinois does apply to a 36-7 ATS subset of a 105-46-1 ATS home underdog situation tonight, so they could keep this one close. The issue is a lack of line value, as Indiana started opened as an 8 point favorite and my ratings also favor the Hoosiers by 8 points. The situations are working even when there seems to be negative line value, so I’ll still lean with Illinois plus the points.

Texas San Antonio (+14) over LOUISIANA TECH
Rotation #527 – 5 pm Pacific
Louisiana Tech is riding a long winning streak but the Bulldogs apply to a very negative 28-96-1 ATS big home favorite letdown situation tonight. UTSA, meanwhile, applies to a 112-56-3 ATS road dog bounce-back situation that is based on their two recent home losses. Unfortunately, my ratings favor Louisiana Tech by 15 ½ points and I’m not willing to give up the line value to make this a Best Bet. But, I’ll lean with UTSA plus the points.

February 07, 2013